ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF TRADITIONAL GEOPOLITICS ON THE PRICE OF AMERICAN OIL BARREL

Abstract

It is known that the price of oil, in recent decades, is the main factor in the formation of the budget of any country, a factor in the development of business activity of the state. The authors of the article draw attention to the fact that the construction of a market development forecast and possible scenarios of behavior on the international arena are necessary for competent planning of state policy and the formation of a realistic budget of any state. The authors did not set as the goal of the study a full assessment of the impact of the entire complex of factors on oil price fluctuations in the current crisis, but only wanted to try to clarify the role of traditional geopolitics (military conflicts, terrorist activity) at the current stage of the development of the oil market over the past five years, which and became the goal of this analysis. The analysis of the literature showed that there are currently no works that take into account the impact of russia’s3 military invasion of Ukraine on the price of a barrel. The article is based on qualitative methods of scientific knowledge. The authors of this article mainly use a historical method, a comparative analysis, including at the same time a minimal analysis of statistical data to support their arguments. Therefore, the identification of the main reasons for changes in oil prices, an adequate assessment of their significance, as well as the construction of a market development forecast and possible scenarios of behavior in the international arena are particularly relevant. The results of the study showed that traditional geopolitics had different degrees of influence in different years of the study. It affects the barrel, but its role in some periods is exaggerated.