PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MULTIMODAL SHIPPING
Abstract
Introduction. The annual growth of multimodal shipping determines the attractiveness of this transport market segment; thus, many companies are ready to provide multimodal shipping services, that leads, on the one hand, high level competition in this market sector, on the other hand, high level requirements of cargo owners. Therefore, to ensure the competitiveness the multimodal operators need significant efforts and a high-level service. Purpose. This study aims to form a set of indicators for estimating the multimodal shipping probabilistic characteristics to provide a comprehensive assessment of shipping options in the decision-making processes. Results. This study proposes methods for estimating the probabilistic characteristics of multimodal shipping – reliability and possible increase in time. To assess the characteristics of multimodal shipping, it is proposed to use a grid graph, which provides a set and logical sequence of operations related to multimodal delivery, both basic and additional. Each operation of the technological process, including critical path operations within the grid model, is characterized by the probabilistic nature of their duration. Statistical researches of some transportation operations duration behavior within the multimodal delivery system are carried out, the normal distribution that confirms results of other researches in the given direction is proved. Estimation methods take into account the different approaches to determining the planned operation duration (average value or value guaranteed with a certain probability), as well as the possibility to estimate the values of operation duration for given level of probability. Conclusions. Along with the main shipping characteristics – cost and time, characteristics proposed in this research form the basis for evaluating alternative shipping options. Changing at least one element in multimodal shipping causes the changes of the entire shipping characteristics. This is to be used to adjust the options in the decision-making process that meets all shipping requirements.
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References
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