STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGERS' ENCOUNTER NETWORKS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RISK OF THE INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREAD
Abstract
Introduction. Urban public transport is considered as one of the key factors of the spreading of infectious diseases due to the direct interaction of passengers with each other during trips in a confined space. Trying to reduce the risk of disease among the urban population during the global pandemic of the Covid-19 coronavirus, urban passenger transport operators and local authorities have applied a number of restrictions for public transport users – from limiting the number of passengers in the vehicle to completely suspending services. However, currently, there are no substantiated approaches to the effectiveness of applying such restrictions. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study and statistically analyze the encounter networks of public transport passengers in cities from the perspective of the complex networks theory in the context of the possible spread of infectious diseases. Results. Passenger encounter networks of urban public transport can be constructed using known values of the trip O-D matrix elements, which can be obtained from the results of passenger flow surveys. Statistical analysis of passenger encounter networks performed for four urban public transport routes in Zaporizhzhia city (Ukraine) showed that they exhibit the properties of Watts-Strogatz “small-world” networks. At the same time, the average number of passenger encounters with other passengers during a trip increases linearly with the increase in passenger capacity of transit vehicles, passenger transportation volumes per trip, and passenger variability indicators on the route. Conclusions. The revealed properties of passenger encounter networks on urban public transport make it possible to apply to them previously obtained results on the mechanisms of the infectious diseases spread in “small-world” networks. The obtained dependences of the average number of passenger encounters with each other during a trip can be used to justify the introduction of restrictive measures regarding the use of urban public transport and their effectiveness during an outbreak of infectious diseases.
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References
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